True cost
What shipping should cost
From public data, we estimate what it costs an efficient carrier to move each basket item: population density where it’s delivered, distance, diesel, wages, equipment, sorting and network. Then we add overhead and a fair margin, taken from the industry’s public results, and compare with the cheapest price we observed.
Referent: for each item, the cheapest observed price is set to $100. Amounts below are per $100 of that price. They are not prices, and the platforms’ terms forbid us from publishing the real ones.
…
The inputs
Every parameter, with its range and source. “Assumption” means no solid public source exists; we say so rather than hide it.
| Parameter | Low – mid – high | Source |
|---|---|---|
| USD → CAD | 1.33 – 1.37 – 1.41CAD per USD | Bank of Canada daily exchange rates |
| Road distance ÷ straight-line distance | 1.15 – 1.22 – 1.35× | Assumption |
| Tractor-trailer fuel use | 33 – 36 – 40L/100 km | Transport Canada, Operating Costs of Trucks in Canada 2017 |
| Fleet price vs retail diesel | 0.85 – 0.92 – 1× | Assumption |
| Benefits and payroll load on wages | 0.25 – 0.3 – 0.35share of wage | ATRI, Operational Costs of Trucking (2026 ed.) |
| Average paid speed (incl. stops) | 65 – 72 – 80km/h | Assumption |
| Equipment, repair, tires, insurance, permits, tolls | 0.85 – 0.97 – 1.1USD per mile | ATRI, Operational Costs of Trucking (2026 ed.) |
| Empty running (deadhead) | 0.1 – 0.165 – 0.25share of loaded km | ATRI, Operational Costs of Trucking (2026 ed.) |
| Loading and unloading time per trip | 2 – 3 – 4hours | Assumption |
| Cross-border filing, brokerage, delay | 100 – 200 – 300CAD per truck | Assumption |
| Marine Atlantic crossing (Newfoundland) | 900 – 1200 – 1600CAD per trailer | Assumption |
| Usable trailer volume (53′) | 100 – 105 – 110m³ | Transport Canada, Operating Costs of Trucks in Canada 2017 |
| Trailer payload | 19000 – 20500 – 22000kg | Transport Canada, Operating Costs of Trucks in Canada 2017 |
| Linehaul trailer fill | 0.65 – 0.75 – 0.85share | Assumption |
| Pickup / induction per parcel | 0.3 – 0.6 – 1.2CAD | Assumption |
| Sort cost per handling | 0.3 – 0.55 – 1CAD | Assumption |
| Sorts per parcel | 1 – 2 – 2count | Assumption |
| Delivery-driver wage vs truck-driver wage | 0.8 – 0.87 – 0.95× | Job Bank wage data, NOC 73300 (Nov 2025) weak |
| Delivery van (lease, insurance, repair) per hour | 15 – 20 – 25CAD/h | Assumption |
| Delivery van energy per hour | 5 – 7.5 – 10CAD/h | Statistics Canada, table 18-10-0001-01 (Sept 2026) |
| Parcels per delivery stop | 1.1 – 1.3 – 1.5count | MIT CTL / Winkenbach, last-mile route productivity |
| Failed-delivery uplift | 0.02 – 0.03 – 0.05share | Assumption |
| Network and facilities per parcel (calibrated residual) | 2 – 3.5 – 6CAD | Calibrated against Canada Post 2025 annual report and UPS 2025 results weak |
| Northern air cargo (Iqaluit) | 4 – 6 – 9CAD per kg | Assumption |
| Pickup or delivery time per LTL stop (incl. stem) | 0.4 – 0.6 – 0.9hours | Assumption |
| Straight truck cost per hour (excl. driver) | 35 – 42 – 50CAD/h | Transport Canada, Operating Costs of Trucks in Canada 2017 weak |
| Terminal dock handling per pallet | 15 – 25 – 40CAD | Assumption |
| Pallet positions per 53′ trailer | 26 – 26 – 26count | Transport Canada, Operating Costs of Trucks in Canada 2017 |
| Overhead (IT, sales, claims, admin): parcel | 0.12 – 0.18 – 0.25share of cost | Public filings: ODFL 2025 10-K, TFI International 2025, UPS 2025 weak |
| Overhead: LTL | 0.1 – 0.15 – 0.2share of cost | Public filings: ODFL 2025 10-K, TFI International 2025, UPS 2025 weak |
| Overhead: FTL | 0.08 – 0.11 – 0.15share of cost | Public filings: ODFL 2025 10-K, TFI International 2025, UPS 2025 weak |
| Fair operating margin: parcel | 0.05 – 0.085 – 0.12share of price | Public filings: ODFL 2025 10-K, TFI International 2025, UPS 2025 |
| Fair operating margin: LTL | 0.08 – 0.14 – 0.2share of price | Public filings: ODFL 2025 10-K, TFI International 2025, UPS 2025 |
| Fair operating margin: FTL | 0.02 – 0.05 – 0.08share of price | ATRI, Operational Costs of Trucking (2026 ed.) |
Median truck-driver wage (NOC 73300)
Job Bank| NL | 24.75 $/h |
| PE | 24.00 $/h |
| NS | 24.00 $/h |
| NB | 23.00 $/h |
| QC | 25.20 $/h |
| ON | 26.00 $/h |
| MB | 24.00 $/h |
| SK | 27.00 $/h |
| AB | 30.00 $/h |
| BC | 30.77 $/h |
| YT | 34.00 $/h |
| NT | 30.00 $/h |
| NU | 29.00 $/h |
Retail diesel, Sept 2026
StatCan 18-10-0001| NL | 2.683 $/L |
| PE | 2.644 $/L |
| NS | 2.634 $/L |
| NB | 2.623 $/L |
| QC | 2.871 $/L |
| ON | 2.494 $/L |
| MB | 2.422 $/L |
| SK | 2.410 $/L |
| AB | 2.408 $/L |
| BC | 2.853 $/L |
| YT | 2.495 $/L |
| NT | 2.158 $/L |
| NU (assumption) | 2.590 $/L |
How the model works
- Distance: between FSA centroids (2021 census boundary file), times a road-circuity factor.
- Linehaul: a full truck’s cost per km (local diesel, provincial wage, equipment from ATRI), plus empty running, then the share of the truck the shipment takes by volume or weight.
- Last mile: an hour of delivery route divided by stops per hour, which depends on the population density of the destination FSA (2021 census).
- Network and facilities: a residual calibrated on Canada Post and UPS public results, so fixed costs aren’t understated.
- Iqaluit: air cargo only. Newfoundland: a Marine Atlantic crossing is added.
What this is not
It isn’t what a carrier should charge. It is the cost of an efficient carrier on a dense network. A carrier with little volume on a lane legitimately has higher costs. The “unexplained” gap therefore holds both margin and our model’s error, which is why we publish the ranges.